As I hinted at a few weeks ago, this year I decided to do some award season predictions. It can be a whole lot of fun to speculate what will win best picture, who will win best actor and best actress ect.
I will not be doing every single category maybe someday I’ll expand to other categories but for now we are going to stick with
Best Picture, Best Actor and Actress, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor and Actress, Best Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Animated Film and Best Song.
One final note, keep in mind that it’s September, hardly any of the films being predicted have had a wide release. So I’m really going off of what’s gotten at lot of spotlight, praise as well as a few personal choices.
With all that said let’s get some quick ones out of the way that I really can’t comment on too much yet.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
So for Best Animated Film right now I have
1. The Boy And The Heron
2. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
3. Wish
4. Elemental
5. Trolls Band Together
Let’s be completely honest here right now it’s a battle between The Boy and The Heron and Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse, early reactions are fantastic for The Boy And The Heron are fantastic, with an 89 on Metacritic and tons of praise across the board it makes for a very strong rival for Across The Spider-Verse. As of right now I think The Boy and The Heron could squeeze the win, I’m unsure if the Oscars would be willing to give Spider-Verse another win after it’s predecessor won back in 2019. But it’s very neck and neck so it could definitely go either way.
As for the rest Wish will absolutely get nominated but whether or not it can compete against The Boy and The Heron and Across The Spider-Verse is something we are going to have to wait and see. Elemental after recovering from the box office is in a decent position to get nominated but won’t have a chance at getting best picture. Trolls: Band Together I kind of just threw on here simply because out of the rest of the choices of animated films it seemed like the most likely to be nominated.
My other choices of animated films that could make it are
6. Nimona
7. The Super Mario Bros Movie
8. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
9. Migration
10. Leo
I would love to see Nimona get a nomination but the conversation about it sort of came and went, however I do think with some campaigning from Netflix it would have a decent shot of getting in. The Super Mario Bros Movie I’m a little hesitant on putting in the top 5 simply because it’s much more of a fan favorite than it would be for an academy favorite. Although it made a billion dollars at the box office, I just don’t see the academy wanting to nominate it. This is definitely a case of waiting till the awards shows start to see if Super Mario Bros can truly get in.
It crushes me that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem is going to have a uphill battle to get in, it’s a film I just watched and think it absolutely deserves a spot in the top 5 (review coming soon.) It does help that the film just reached $100 million dollars at the box office right before the summer’s end, so there’s a bit of steam right there. Once again this is going to come down to campaigning, it’s a very well loved film from audiences and critics so if Paramount can campaign it just right it could make it in. Finally there’s Migration and Leo which I only have them on here because I really couldn’t think of any other options. I don’t think either have a shot of making it in.
BEST SONG
For Best song I have
1. What Was I Made For? By Billie Eilish from Barbie
2. I’m Just Ken by Ryan Gosling from Barbie
3. Peaches by Jack Black from The Super Mario Bros Movie
4. Road To Freedom by Lenny Kravitz from Rustin
5. For The First Time sung by Halle Bailey from The Little Mermaid (2023)
Some people think it’s going to be a battle between I’m Just Ken and Peaches however I believe What Was I Made For? is going to take it in the end, the song is used in one of the most meaningful scenes in Barbie, the one argument against it is that Billie Eilish won an Oscar for No Time To Die back in 2022. Which is a very fair point however I really can’t see that mattering all that much when you consider the other nominations.
I’m Just Ken is the only other song in the top 5 I personally think has a chance of defeating What Was I Made For? This could very well be a repeat from last year when Naatu Naatu a energetic yet meaningful song beating Hold My Hand a more dramatic song, It helps that I’m Just Ken is a very popular song and still has so much momentum right now. So there’s definitely a path for it to take the prize.
Peaches is a fun song but realistically I don’t see it taking best song, for right now I do think it will get nominated however that could easily change when more competition appears within the next couple months. But you never know it could stand throughout the whole season and get in.
Road To Freedom I really can’t comment on yet as Rustin has not been released yet, however it’s been talked about a bit and does look like something that could comfortably get in.
Finally there’s For The First Time which if nominated is going to serve as this year’s Disney live action remake song that gets nominated but doesn’t have a shot at getting best song.
My other choices for best song are
6. Dear Allen (Who Made Art in Heaven) by the cast from Asteroid City
7. High Life by Eve Hewson and Oren Kinlan from Flora & Son
8. A Song from Wish
9. The Fire Inside by Becky G from Flamin’ Hot
10. Love Again by Celine Dion from Love Again
Dear Allen is a charming song but Asteroid City is already being shoved out the door when it comes to being an awards contender (it’s a shame because it’s one of my favorites of the year.) so I just don’t see it happening. I can’t comment on High Life since Flora & Son hasn’t released yet however the movie is releasing at the end of this month so we will see if High Life picks up steam. I just put a song from Wish because I do think it’s very likely that at least one song could gain some momentum, what that song will be who knows. The Fire Inside and Love Again are sort of in the same boat both are songs from movies that are completely forgettable and neither song has had any big momentum.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
For Best Original Screenplay I have
If it’s one award I think Past Lives has a very good shot at winning right now (Review coming soon I absolutely loved the film!) it’s original screenplay. Anatomy Of Fall is definitely a close second given the amount of praise it’s been receiving. Everything else I just sort of put there because there really isn’t anything concrete right now.
Other possible choices could be
6. Priscilla
7. Rustin
8. May December
9. Napoleon
10. The Boy And The Heron
Priscilla I definitely think could squeeze into the top 5 due to the huge amount of praise it received at the Venice film festival, the rest I put as just placeholders for now. They could happen but we just have to see how the race goes.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
For Best Adapted Screenplay I have
Like Best Original Screenplay there isn’t a lot to comment on right now. But I will say that I think this is going to be a very interesting one. Killers Of The Flower Moon, Oppenheimer and Poor Things I really think are in a battle for the prize. While The Zone Of Interest and Barbie are behind but are still strong contenders. There’s a lot of great choices for Adapted Screenplay so I’m excited to see where this goes.
Other choices could be
6. The Color Purple
7. The Bikeriders
8. All Of Us Strangers
9. Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret
10. Wonka
The Oscars like to throw a curveball every now and then of something completely out of left field, which is mainly the reason why Wonka is here (although it has next to no chance.) I’m not entirely convinced quite yet about The Color Purple really leading the pack. It’s very possible that when it releases it’s met with critical acclaim and will score a lot of nominations. But for right now I do think the field is very stacked and it’s going to take a lot to get in. The Bikeriders and All Of Us Strangers both got really strong reactions at the Venice Film Festival so that puts them on the map for now. Are You There God? It’s Margaret while it has lost a lot of momentum I do think there’s a chance of a comeback, but that’s going to have to be really soon.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
For best supporting actor I have
Ever since Barbie was released Ryan Gosling has been praised, pushed and advocated for to be crowned best supporting actor at the Oscars and what’s hilarious about this is that might just happen. Right now there is no other performance that has this much momentum than Gosling. And I would not complain if Gosling goes all the way and wins the prize.
Similarly while there are few choices to pick from with Oppenheimer the one that has gotten the most spotlight is Robert Downey Jr. who does such a fantastic job in the role as I said my review. Right now Gosling definitely has the edge of the favorite to win, but as I’ve said it’s very early in the race and some of the other contenders could get a lot momentum.
Robert De Niro being nominated wouldn’t be a surprise, early reactions from the Cannes film festival says his performance is fantastic (like the rest of the cast.) I definitely think Poor Things is going to be a very popular film this award season so for now I have Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe, this could very well change but with the strong reactions from the performances puts these two in a good position.
Other choices
6. John Magaro (Past Lives)
7. Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)
8. Colman Domingo (The Color Purple)
9. Tom Hardy (The Bikeriders)
10. Jacob Elordi (Saltburn)
John Magaro and Matt Damon could easily get into the top 5, as long as A24 campaigns heavy on Past Lives Magaro has a very strong shot of making it in (which he should his performance was beautiful.) Matt Damon is one of the many choices from Oppenheimer I hinted at earlier, I can definitely see a situation where both Robert Downey Jr. and Matt Damon make it in it will more than likely come down to who has the bigger momentum going on and who gets more campaign treatment from Warner Bros.
Colman Domingo much like Sandra Huller (Anatomy Of A Fall and The Zone Of Interest) is going to campaign for two categories in the case of Colman Domingo best actor (Rustin) and I would imagine supporting actor for The Color Purple. I only put him here for now since it’s unclear if that’s going to be a priority for Warner Bros when there’s so many options in The Color Purple to choose from.
Tom Hardy and Jacob Elordi both got really good reactions from their performances, I’m not sure if it’s enough to compete with everyone else but I guess we will see what happens!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
For Best Supporting Actress I have
Best Supporting Actress is packed this time around, there’s so many different performances that seem to standout among many critics. However the one that has been getting the most praise and an easy frontrunner is Lily Gladstone, right out the gate when Killers Of The Flower was shown at Cannes Film Festival Gladstone was widely praised for her performance. I can definitely see this going in a Ke Huy Quan or Ariana DeBose route where Gladstone completely sweeps the season and eventually takes home best supporting actress!
Everyone else is definitely going to have to campaign pretty hard but that’s not to say that everyone else hasn’t gotten praise. Rosamund Pike has gotten quite a lot of praise for her performance, Da’Vine Joy Randolph has quickly picked up steam over the last week and only got more this week thanks to The Holdovers being shown at TIFF. Both are definitely in a comfortable position to get nominated.
As I’ve said before I’m not 100% convinced yet that The Color Purple is going to lead the pack with tons of nominations. However I do think Danielle Brooks has a very strong case of making it, I can’t comment too much since we don’t know much yet, but I would imagine at least one of the supporting actresses from The Color Purple could make it in.
I put Emily Blunt here because despite being mostly blurred in the background during most of the film, she does play a very important part in Oppenheimer that I could easily see making a case for her to get in. On the other hand the academy and other award shows could look at this and say “that’s not enough” and completely skip over Emily Blunt for somebody else which I can see happening.
Other choices include
6. Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple)
7. Jodie Foster (Nyad)
8. Sandra Huller (The Zone Of Interest)
9. Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? it’s Me Margaret)
10. Florence Pugh (Oppenheimer)
As I said best supporting actress is a very interesting category this year and the other choices continue to show that!
If The Color Purple is met with critical acclaim and has a huge amount of momentum when it releases in December I can easily see a case where Henson could join Brooks in the top 5, with that said it’s going to come down to what performances truly stand out. We will have to wait and see what happens.
Jodie Foster has gained some steam since Nyad was shown at the Telluride film festival and it’s very possible she could get in as long as Netflix campaigns right for her performance. Sandra Huller could very well make it into best supporting actress but I think she has a far better shot at Best Actress (we will get to very soon) still it could potentially happen.
Rachel McAdams is sadly at a huge disadvantage, it’s a shame to because she does deliver a phenomenal and touching performance. The only way I could see her making it in is if she has campaigned hard for, but I think when October rolls around and the award season films start releasing it’s going to be a little too late. Finally there’s Florence Pugh who does not have a lot of screentime in Oppenheimer but I can see a case where she could possibly make it in. However I think campaign treatment is going to go to Emily Blunt instead.
BEST ACTOR
For Best Actor I have
Honestly there is not a whole lot to comment on here, Cillian Murphy has been the frontrunner ever since Oppenheimer released in July and is still gaining momentum currently (rightfully so his performance is fantastic.) there’s definitely path for him to go all the way. Leonardo DiCaprio is in second place with his performance in Killers Of The Flower Moon that’s gotten a huge amount of praise and will more than likely pick up more steam once the film releases next month.
Colman Domingo out of everyone listed is the one who’s picked up the most steam, Rustin premiered at the Telluride film festival and Domingo’s performance got a lot of attention and praise some people even saying he’s a frontrunner and could defeat Cillian Murphy at the Oscars. For now I have him in third, I think I’m going to wait for more reactions and when the film releases in November to see where this goes. But I would be absolutely happy for Domingo since I do think he’s an incredible actor.
Bradley Cooper and Paul Giamatti sit comfortably at 4 and 5 respectively, both performances got a lot of praise but I don’t think it’s quite enough yet to rival Murphy, DiCaprio or Domingo just yet.
Other choices are
6. Austin Butler (The Bikeriders)
7. Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)
8. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
9. Andrew Scott (All Of Us Strangers)
10. Michael Fassbender (The Killer)
Some really interesting other options that many people could make the case for of getting in. Austin Butler has gotten a huge amount of praise for his performance whether it will be enough to get in remains to be seen but if he gets more and more momentum it could happen.
I definitely think Joaquin Phoenix could enter the race and completely flip the table, due to the film not screening just yet I don’t feel comfortable putting him in the top 5 but the possibility of Phoenix flipping the race places him at number 7. Barry Keoghan is sort of in the same position as Butler is in, a performance that got a huge amount of praise but we have to wait and see if it gains momentum and that if it can rival someone in the top 5.
I’ve seen a lot of people put Andrew Scott in the top 5 which I completely understand why, All Of Us Strangers was a very huge surprise at the Telluride film festival and the praise for Scott’s performance was everywhere. I definitely think if this keeps up and when the award shows and award bodies start if Scott is nominated there’s a strong argument to be made that he could get in. Finally there’s Michael Fassbender which while his performance was praised the film is described as being “incredibly dark” which may or may not hurt Fassbender’s chances at the nomination, this is a case of we are going to have to wait and see.
Best Actress
For Best Actress I have
Best Actress like in some previous years is a crowded category this award season however, over the last week or so since Poor Things premiered at the Venice Film Festival. Emma Stone has quickly gained so much momentum for her performance in Poor Things. She’s now considered a frontrunner and could be on her way to win her second Oscar, she’s in a very comfortable position right now to take home best actress.
Carrey Mulligan has picked up a ton of steam since it’s premier at the Venice film festival, it helps her that her performance is in a biopic which we all know by now the Oscars absolutely love. There definitely is a path for Mulligan to absolutely take the win, we just have to wait and see if she picks up more steam.
Cailee Spaeny has quickly become a potential rival for Emma Stone, with her winning Best Actress for her performance in Priscilla at the Venice film festival and that’s a big deal. 15 of the winners of the Volpi Cup for best actress at the Venice Film Festival went on to be nominated at the Oscars while 5/15 won at the Oscars (Helen Hayes, Vivien Leigh, Helen Mirren, Emma Stone and Olivia Coleman) that is pretty impressive and when you add in the incredible reviews Priscilla has gotten. If the praise and momentum keeps going there is a very real chance that Cailee Spaeney could take the Oscar!
Finally there’s Margot Robbie, I’ve been using the word “momentum” constantly throughout this post. But if it’s one person who’s had the most momentum it has to be Margot Robbie. While she has fallen down a bit due to competition, Robbie still has a very good shot of being nominated and maybe even winning best actress. Ever since Barbie has released the praise of her performance just keeps on coming and it’s definitely not going to stop anytime soon. It helps that the movie itself Barbie is still quite relevant and reached one billion dollars at the box office, Warner Bros is most certainly going to make Margot Robbie’s performance one of their priorities and I can absolutely see it succeeding.
Other choices include
6. Fantasia (The Color Purple)
Sandra Huller is already in a very comfortable position with her performance as well the film itself Anatomy Of A Fall being highly praised, the latter of which being the 2023 Palme d’Or winner which for those that don’t know is the top prize at the Cannes film festival. Huller’s performance has been highly praised since then and is still regularly talked about, there’s no doubt that she will absolutely go on to be a tough opponent during the awards season.
7. Greta Lee (Past Lives)
8. Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders)
9. Natalie Portman (May December)
10. Annette Bening (Nyad)
As I’ve said throughout this post if The Color Purple hits the right notes it will definitely get nominated for a bunch of categories. Fantasia could very easily get into the top 5 she’s only out of the top 5 for now since we really don’t know how The Color Purple is going to go just yet. Greta Lee could also very easily get in it just comes down to campaigning on A24’s part, I’m sure Lee is going to pop up a lot during the award season which will lead to more than likely nomination.
Jodie Comer, Natalie Portman and Annette Bening have all gotten praise for their performances, with the right amount of campaigning and push they could quickly gain a lot of steam.
BEST DIRECTOR
For Best Director I have
Best Director is going to be one of the most interesting categories this award season, it was by far the hardest category I had to pick from this time around because this could go so many different ways.
For now I have Christopher Nolan taking the top spot, but that’s mainly due to Oppenheimer having a ton of praise, momentum and definitely something the academy would go for. This could very easily change once more of the films start to release but there is an absolute strong argument to be made that Nolan will win best director.
Martin Scorsese is no doubt going to be nominated, now whether he wins is the question but right now he makes for a pretty strong rival for Nolan especially given the huge amount of praise that Killers Of The Flower Moon has received.
Yorgos Lanthimos has quickly picked up steam since Poor Things won Best Film at the Venice film festival and the overall amount acclaim from critics, Lanthimos could very easily take best director
Justine Triet is in a very comfortable position currently with Anatomy Of A Fall winning the top prize at Cannes film festival and the film still receiving highly positive reviews. She will absolutely make it in and it will be a challenge to stop her.
Greta Gerwig I truly think has a very strong possibility of making it in, like with Margot Robbie she might have dropped down a few pegs due to competition but she is still very relevant in the conversation. There’s a very clear path for Gerwig to be nominated and I truly think at the end of the tunnel she’s going to make it.
Other choices are
1. Celine Song
2. Sofia Coppola
3. Jonathan Glazer
4. Alexander Payne
5. Emerald Fennell
Celine Song is a tad bit behind the top 5 as I have been keep saying about Past Lives, as long as A24 campaigns hard for it I truly think it’s going to go very far. I can easily see Celine Song getting into the top 5, she’s been highly praised and her direction is something I definitely think the academy would go for.
Sofia Coppola isn’t too far behind either, much like Celine Song she could very easily make it into the top 5. The huge amount of praise of Priscilla helps and she’s gained so much momentum over the last week or so, if that continues into the award shows and bodies she could be a shoo-in for a nomination.
Johnathan Glazer is yet another one who could very easily get in, from the reviews it sounds like he did one hell of a job directing. Combine this with the critical acclaim and the push to put him into the top 5 I can easily see this happening, there is an argument saying that Glazer will be popular among other award bodies and critics (like the Critic’s Choice Awards) but will miss the Oscar nomination. That is a very real possibility but it’s one of those things where we have to wait and see.
Alexander Payne and Emerald Fennell I can definitely see getting nominated but they are competing against a lot of strong competition, Payne definitely has the slight advantage over Fennell with The Holdovers being called a crowd pleaser (the Oscars love their crowd pleasers) and getting some really strong reviews. While Saltburn got strong reviews but is definitely mixed for some people. However there are strong cases to be made that they could definitely make it in to the top 5.
BEST PICTURE
Finally for Best Picture I have
Best Picture is another really interesting category this year, this is yet another one where the academy could potentially go in so many different types of directions.
Poor Things could repeat A Shape Of Water type of win a very different choice from the academy and a “weird” film wins, a lot of people have made this argument for Poor Things and right now I definitely see it. As I said before it’s still very early and we don’t exactly know what’s going to happen, but the huge amount of praise, winning Best Film at the Venice Film Festival and the film being highly talked about absolutely helps.
Oppenheimer is a lot of people’s frontrunner and it’s very easy to see why, it’s highly praised and has everything the academy really likes. The fact that Oppenheimer is one of the highest grossing films of this year despite being a 3 hour rated R film is also a pretty strong boost as well. Oppenheimer is also still very relevant it’s still talked about and quite honestly a no brainer that this will get nominated.
Killers Of The Flower Moon is getting nominated, right from the start of the year this film was already predicted to be in the best picture lineup and it will be shocking if it doesn’t make it in. It received very strong reactions at Cannes film festival and is only going to get more momentum when it releases next month.
Barbie is definitely interesting one some people write it off completely simply because it’s “not an awards movie” which I would like to point out that people said the exact same thing about Top Gun Maverick, I remember people being absolutely convinced that Top Gun was going to fade away after a few months when it released but obviously that didn’t happen. Barbie could very well pull off the exact same tactic stay completely relevant and remain as one of the most talked about films of the year, it’s made over a billion dollars at the box office and is a well loved film filled with moments that I could see the academy really going for.
Anatomy Of A Fall is in a very comfortable position to be nominated, as I have said a couple times now it won the top prize at Cannes Film Festival and is still getting fantastic reviews. This is definitely a shoo-in to get nominated.
The last four can be very interchangeable Past Lives and The Zone Of Interest I definitely think have very strong cases of being nominated it’s just going to come down to being campaigned just right. Maestro definitely has the positive reviews and the whole biopic part of it on its side to be nominated. The Holdovers is a crowd pleaser that from the reviews is also a powerful film as well. Finally I do think The Color Purple could pull a West Side Story (2021) and get nominated but like I’ve said it’s too early to tell.
Other choices are
11. Rustin
12. Priscilla
13. All Of Us Strangers
14. May December
15. The Bikeriders
16. Saltburn
17. Napoleon
18. The Killer
19. The Boy and The Heron
20. Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
A majority of these come down to campaigning or continuing getting momentum.
Rustin, Priscilla and All Of Us Strangers could very easily get in. They are all well loved films from early reviews and if the reviews stay consistent they could definitely find a spot in the top 10.
May December, The Bikeriders and Saltburn are going to come down to campaigning they have all gotten strong reviews but definitely are going to need the extra push.
Napoleon, The Killer, The Boy and The Heron and Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse I just put there because I could not really think of anything else. It would definitely be interesting to see these films make it into the top 10 but I sadly don’t think it’s going to happen unless something completely flips the table during the season.
And that’s it for this part of the predictions, the next one will be out in October more than likely when we slowly but surely to see more award season films be released!
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